Mexico tourism surges as U.S. inbound slips

Published on Aug 18, 2025, 1:26 pm CDT

5 min read

Mexico is enjoying a decisive tourism upswing in 2025, even as international arrivals to the United States cool. Government figures show Mexico welcomed 47.4 million international visitors in the first half of 2025, up 13.8 percent year over year, including 23.4 million overnight tourists. Cruise volumes also grew, while June delivered a double digit surge in international tourists. By contrast, U.S. year to date arrivals through May were down 2.4 percent, with Canadian travel to the U.S. notably weaker, and Mexican visitation to the U.S. rising from 2024 levels. The divergence is reshaping traveler flows across North America. See our related coverage, U.S. Tourism Decline Deepens in June 2025 Air Travel Data and Mexico Travel Advisory Updated to Level 2.

Key Points

Why it matters: Mexico tourism rose 13.8% in H1 2025, signaling durable demand.
Travel impact: Canada to U.S. trips fell, while Canada to Mexico visits climbed.
What's next: More policy, pricing, and air capacity shifts will guide fall demand.
Cruise trend: Mexico handled about 5.6 million cruise passengers in H1 2025.
Market split: U.S. inbound dipped 2.4% through May; Mexico advanced broadly.
Data note: Mexico reports 23.4 million overnight tourists in six months.

Snapshot

Mexico reports 47.4 million international visitors from January through June 2025, an increase of 13.8 percent compared to 2024. Within that total, 23.4 million were overnight tourists, up 7.3 percent, with visitor spending advancing as well. June performance was strong, with an 11 to 12 percent rise in total visitors and a 10 percent jump in international tourists. Cruise tourism contributed meaningful volume, reaching about 5.6 million passengers in the first half. The United States showed a different pattern. Through May 2025, international arrivals were 2.4 percent below the same period in 2024, with multiple sources pointing to softer demand from Canada. Notably, Mexican visitation to the U.S. increased nearly 14 percent year to date through May.

Background

Mexico's visitor counts combine overnight tourists and excursionists, measured by INEGI's International Travelers Survey and SECTUR reporting. The 2025 gains reflect resilient demand from the United States and Canada, alongside steady cruise deployment in the Caribbean and Pacific. Canadian visitation to Mexico by air rose at a double digit pace in the first six months, reflecting substitution away from U.S. destinations. At the same time, Mexico's federal tourism team highlighted higher aggregate spending and a widening portfolio of destinations beyond the traditional beach corridors. In the United States, NTTO's monthly releases flagged a mid year slowdown in inbound totals, even as outbound U.S. travel remained elevated. The split underscores the competitive stakes for winter schedules, marketing budgets, and pricing across North American gateways.

Latest Developments

Mexico tourism posts broad first half gains, U.S. shows mid year softness

SECTUR reported 47.4 million international visitors in the first half of 2025, up 13.8 percent year over year, including 23.4 million overnight tourists, up 7.3 percent. INEGI's June read showed 8.02 million total visitors, up 11.5 percent, with international tourists up 10 percent. Cruise remained a tailwind, with approximately 5.6 million passengers and 1,639 calls in the first six months, increases of 8.4 and 7.8 percent respectively. On the demand side, Canada to Mexico air visitors rose 11.8 percent in the half, and U.S. air visitors to Mexico rose 2.4 percent. In contrast, a Congressional Research Service brief noted U.S. international arrivals were down 2.4 percent through May, while arrivals from Mexico to the U.S. climbed 13.9 percent year to date. Several outlets also documented sustained Canadian pullbacks to the U.S. across spring and summer.

Analysis

Mexico's momentum rests on three pillars. First, proximity and airlift give Mexico a cost and convenience edge, especially for Canadians during a period of weaker sentiment toward U.S. trips. Second, cruise deployment remains favorable for Mexican ports, lifting same day volumes, retail, and tour sales even when airfare is pricey. Third, policy continuity has kept capacity additions and destination investments moving, which helps convert intent into arrivals. The composition matters. Overnight tourists grew 7.3 percent, while total visitors, including excursionists, climbed 13.8 percent. That mix supports headline growth, yet budgeting for per traveler spend should account for lower outlays by day visitors. For the United States, mid year softness stems from a cluster of issues, including currency dynamics, airfares, and geopolitically driven sentiment in key markets. The CRS note that Mexican arrivals to the U.S. rose nearly 14 percent through May highlights Latin America as a partial offset to declines from Canada and parts of Europe. Looking ahead, winter schedules, cross border marketing, and visa processing speeds will influence whether the U.S. narrows the gap, or Mexico extends its lead.

Final Thoughts

The data signal a pivotal year for North American travel. Mexico tourism is expanding across air, land, and sea, with double digit growth in total visitors and a solid rise in overnight tourists. Canada's pivot toward Mexico, coupled with steady U.S. origin demand, provides runway into peak winter. For suppliers, watch airfare trends, cruise calls, and provincial school break calendars in Canada, which will shape shoulder season demand. For travelers, availability should remain good outside holiday peaks, with improving options beyond the marquee beach hubs. Barring policy shocks, Mexico tourism enters fall with the advantage.

Sources

Topics

Mexico