Holiday airfare prices hit three-year low

Holiday airfare is finally easing. A new Dollar Flight Club analysis of about 250 high-volume routes shows domestic median prices are 19 percent lower than the 2022-2024 baseline, with international down about 9 percent. On specific Thanksgiving and Christmas or New Year routes, prices have fallen as much as 40 percent. The biggest wins appear when travelers shift by a day or swap airports, bringing major Florida, Mexico, and select transatlantic routes into play for less. Here is where prices dropped, why it happened, and how to book it.

Dollar Flight Club holiday outlook

Dollar Flight Club defines the 2025 holiday windows as November 22 to December 2 for Thanksgiving, and December 18 to January 6 for Christmas and New Year. Its findings highlight outsized declines into Florida and Mexico, plus tactical opportunities to Italy. Examples include New York LaGuardia Airport (LGA) or John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) to Miami International Airport (MIA) or Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL) from $98 roundtrip, roughly 36 to 41 percent lower than last year. Orlando International Airport (MCO) and Orlando Sanford International Airport (SFB) see the steepest domestic drops, from $38 to $142 roundtrip, driven by seat growth and carrier competition. Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD) to Cancún International Airport (CUN) starts near $221, and Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) to Cancún is as low as $206. Long-haul value shows up on Los Angeles and New York routes to Leonardo da Vinci-Fiumicino Airport (FCO), where holiday-day departures price at $297 to $401 roundtrip.

Latest developments

Dollar Flight Club's October 16 report cites capacity increases into sun markets, sharper competition on key hubs, and softer pricing on holiday-day departures. It recommends booking Thanksgiving domestic trips three to seven weeks out, and Christmas domestic trips four to eight weeks out, while flexing dates by one to three days. That timing, paired with airport swaps such as FLL versus MIA or SFB versus MCO, unlocks many of the largest percentage drops.

Analysis

Airlines added seats where holiday demand spikes, especially South Florida and Mexico, then trimmed edges around peak days. That combination widened the savings gap between the busiest days and adjacent "almost-peak" days. For travelers, two levers matter most. First, departure day. Tuesday and Wednesday often undercut weekends, and flying on the holiday itself can be cheapest. Second, airport choice. Pricing both sides of a metro, or pairing a primary with a nearby secondary field, can shave 20 to 30 percent.

If you are eyeing Orlando, the pricing backdrop aligns with the city's broad holiday draw. Planning a theme-park break? Check our recent event update for seasonal evenings in Orlando. For winter sun, Cancún remains a consistent value play and a short flight from many U.S. hubs, with fares pushed down by added leisure capacity. See our Cancún destination briefing for on-the-ground planning basics.

Background

Dollar Flight Club aggregates lowest observed roundtrip economy fares from its alerts and partners, excludes mistake fares, and benchmarks medians against matched 2022-2024 holiday windows. Thanksgiving 2025 falls on November 27. Christmas and New Year returns show the softest prices from January 3 to January 6, when crowds thin and aircraft reposition.

Final thoughts

With holiday airfare prices at a three-year low, flexibility pays. Move your trip by a day, compare nearby airports, and book inside the recommended windows to capture the largest declines. Florida, Mexico, and select transatlantic routes are the headline bargains. If holiday travel is on your list, treat these weeks as an opportunity to lock in lower holiday airfare prices.

Sources

• Holiday airfare down as much as 40%; lowest since 2022, Dollar Flight Club
• Holiday airfare prices hit three-year low, TravelPulse