Canada Pilot Strike Risk For December Air Transat Flights

Published on Dec 1, 2025, 4:46 pm CST

9 min read

Key points

Air Transat pilots are voting on a strike mandate from November 17 to December 2, 2025 with a legal strike possible after December 10
The dispute covers more than 700 pilots based mainly in Montreal and Toronto who want industry standard pay, scheduling, and quality of life improvements
Air Transat is a key carrier for winter leisure flights from Canada to Europe, the Caribbean, Mexico, Florida, and Brazil so alternative seats may be limited
Canadian law requires a 21 day cooling off period plus a 72 hour strike notice and a maintenance of activities plan before any legal work stoppage
Travelers with December 2025 and early 2026 bookings should avoid tight cruise or tour starts, add buffer days, and monitor strike vote results and notices closely

Impact

Where Impacts Are Most Likely: The highest disruption risk is on December and early January leisure flights from Montreal and Toronto to Europe, the Caribbean, Mexico, Florida, and new Brazil routes if a strike begins after December 10
Best Times To Fly: Trips completed before December 9 or shifted into later January are less exposed to an initial strike window, and shoulder season weekday flights will be easier to rebook
Connections And Misconnect Risk: Same day cruise departures, tour starts, and separate ticket connections through Montreal and Toronto should be avoided or given at least a full day of buffer
What Travelers Should Do Now: Track the strike vote outcome after December 2, check Air Transat advisories daily, and line up backup routings or flexible dates on other carriers where affordable
Onward Travel And Changes: Use refundable or flexible hotel, rail, and car bookings around Air Transat flights, and review credit card and insurance coverage in case of cancellations or long delays

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Travelers booked on Air Transat flights from Montréal, Quebec, Canada, and Toronto, Ontario, Canada, in December 2025 now face a defined Air Transat pilot strike risk window. More than 700 pilots represented by the Air Line Pilots Association, ALPA, are voting on a strike authorization that opened November 17 and runs until December 2, 2025. If they approve the mandate and mediated talks fail, the union could call a walkout as early as December 10 under Canadian labor rules, putting Christmas, New Year, and early 2026 winter sun trips at risk.

The Air Transat pilot strike risk centers on a possible work stoppage after December 10, 2025, if strike authorization is approved and conciliation under the Canada Labour Code does not produce a deal, which could disrupt Canada to Europe and southbound leisure flights at the height of the winter peak.

Timeline For A Possible Air Transat Pilot Strike

Air Transat pilots opened contract negotiations in January 2025. Talks moved into a formal conciliation period on September 19, which ended November 18. Under the Canada Labour Code, that end date triggered a 21 day cooling off period starting November 19, after which both sides gain the legal right to strike or lock out, provided several additional conditions are met.

According to ALPA, the cooling off period runs through December 10, 2025. After that date, the union can legally call a strike or the airline can impose a lockout, once a positive strike vote is in hand, a maintenance of activities agreement is filed, and a 72 hour strike notice is given. The strike authorization ballot itself runs from November 17 to December 2, which means the first critical milestone for travelers will be the announcement of vote results in the first days of December.

If the pilots vote yes, there is no automatic strike on December 10. Instead, that date marks the beginning of a window in which the union gains the legal option to call a strike once it files 72 hour notice and confirms its maintenance of activities plan, both required under federal rules to protect public safety during any work stoppage. Practically, this means disruption could begin in the second half of December, or be delayed if negotiations continue, or be avoided entirely if the parties reach a last minute deal.

Which Routes And Travelers Are Most Exposed

Air Transat operates as a leisure focused carrier with core hubs at Montréal Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport (YUL) and Toronto Pearson International Airport (YYZ). From these bases it runs dense winter programs to the Caribbean, Mexico, Central and South America, Florida, and a slate of transatlantic routes, including new long haul services such as Rio de Janeiro and Guadalajara in the 2025 to 2026 season.

That mix makes the airline especially important for:

Quebec and Ontario families heading south to Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, and Florida over school holidays.
European Canadians and visitors booking relatively affordable nonstops between Montréal or Toronto and cities such as Paris, Lisbon, Porto, and other seasonal European points.
Early adopters targeting new leisure routes to Brazil and other emerging sun destinations in the winter 2025 to 2026 schedule.

Because many of these markets are heavily seasonal and already run close to full during Christmas and New Year, even a short strike could strand or reroute tens of thousands of mostly leisure travelers, with limited spare capacity on other carriers and higher prices on remaining seats. Travelers booked on package holidays, all inclusive resorts, and cruise or tour bundles that rely on Air Transat lift out of Montréal and Toronto will be particularly exposed, since a canceled flight can ripple through prepaid hotel nights and nonrefundable excursions.

At the same time, Air Transat has publicly stressed that its operations are currently normal and that it remains committed to reaching a negotiated agreement, with several additional bargaining dates scheduled through the end of November. That stance means travelers should not assume an inevitable shutdown, but should treat the strike window as a real planning factor.

Background, How Canadian Airline Strikes Work

For travelers unfamiliar with Canadian labor law, understanding the structure of airline strikes is critical. Under Part I of the Canada Labour Code, federally regulated employers and unions must go through notice to bargain, conciliation, and mediation before any legal strike or lockout can occur. Once conciliation ends, a 21 day cooling off period begins, during which the Minister of Labour can continue to appoint mediators.

Only after that cooling off period has expired, and only if the union has won a strike mandate within the past 60 days, may either side exercise the right to strike or lock out. Even then, three conditions must be met, a positive strike vote, a maintenance of activities agreement filed with the Canada Industrial Relations Board and the Minister, and a written 72 hour notice of strike or lockout.

Recent reforms through Bill C 58 also prohibit the use of replacement workers in federally regulated workplaces during a strike or lockout, which can increase the leverage of pilot groups in disputes like this one. However, there is also a track record of federal intervention when airline strikes threaten to cripple the economy. In August 2025, for example, the government moved to end an Air Canada flight attendant strike within days by seeking binding arbitration through the Canada Industrial Relations Board after hundreds of flights were canceled and more than 100,000 passengers were stranded.

Taken together, these rules mean that if Air Transat pilots call a strike, any work stoppage could be relatively short if the government decides to step in, but the first week or two of disruption could still be severe for passengers caught in the initial wave.

Planning Strategies For December 2025 And Early 2026 Trips

The core risk window runs from December 10, 2025, onward, including the busy Christmas and New Year period and continuing into early January when many Canadians and Europeans are flying home or onward to second legs of longer trips. Travelers with flexibility should treat this window as one to avoid or to buffer heavily if Air Transat is the only viable carrier on a route.

First, anyone planning same day cruise departures or tour starts should add at least one full buffer day at the embarkation city when relying on Air Transat flights in mid to late December. A schedule change or same day cancellation could otherwise cause a missed sailing or the loss of the first nights of a tour.

Second, travelers who can travel earlier should consider moving outbound flights into the first week of December, before the strike window opens, or shifting peak holiday trips into mid or late January, when capacity may be easier to rebook if disruptions continue.

Third, where budgets allow, booking critical segments on carriers not involved in the dispute can reduce risk. For example, travelers connecting from regional Canadian cities to long haul flights might choose a different airline entirely, or at least avoid separate tickets that combine an Air Transat leg with another airline on the same day. Single ticket itineraries booked directly with one carrier or through a reputable tour operator offer stronger protection if schedules change.

Fourth, build flexibility into hotels, rental cars, and rail segments around Air Transat flights. Choose rates that can be canceled or changed without heavy penalties on the arrival and departure days, especially in hub cities such as Montréal and Toronto, and along popular onward corridors.

Fifth, review your financial backstops. Many premium credit cards and standalone travel insurance policies include trip interruption and cancellation coverage for airline strikes, but definitions and waiting periods vary. Travelers should confirm whether a declared strike, a work to rule slowdown, or only a full cancellation triggers benefits, and should keep receipts and documentation if disruptions occur.

Finally, monitor both union and airline communications closely. ALPA and Air Transat will likely publish updates as the strike vote closes around December 2, and any 72 hour strike notice after December 10 will be public, giving travelers a narrow window to rebook or reroute.

For a broader view of how winter weather can compound labor related disruption across North America, see our December 1, 2025 outlook on United States and Canada flight delays, which tracks storm impacts by major hub and day of week. For more context on transport strikes as a structural travel risk, our December 6, 2025 report on CrossCountry rail strikes offers additional planning strategies that also apply in Canada. Travelers who want to understand their compensation and rerouting rights under Canadian law should consult our evergreen guide to the Air Passenger Protection Regulations before changing tickets.

What To Watch Next

The next key date is the close of the strike authorization vote on December 2, 2025. A strong yes vote would significantly raise the pressure on management and make a strike more credible, while a narrow margin might encourage both sides to lean harder into mediation.

After December 10, travelers should watch for three specific developments, any announcement of a tentative agreement that would take strike risk off the table, any formal 72 hour strike or lockout notice filed with the Minister of Labour and publicized by the parties, and any sign that the federal government intends to intervene, especially if broader economic or safety concerns are cited.

If no deal emerges and a notice is filed, travelers booked on Air Transat between the notice date and at least a week after any potential strike begins should immediately check for travel waivers, rebooking options, and alternative routings, and should expect crowded phone lines and long queues at airport service desks.