November 2025 U.S. Airfares Down 5.4% in CPI

Published on Dec 19, 2025, 7:52 am CST

6 min read

Airfares in the Consumer Price Index swung sharply lower in the latest report, with the November reading showing U.S. airline fares down 5.4 percent year over year. That is a meaningful reversal from September, when the same CPI airfare measure showed fares up 3.2 percent year over year. For travelers, the practical takeaway is that airlines appear to have leaned harder on discounting as autumn ended, which can translate into more competitive pricing for winter and early spring itineraries, especially on routes with softer demand.

The CPI details also come with an unusual caveat that matters for interpreting the change. The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish an October CPI news release because it could not collect October 2025 survey data during the federal funding lapse, and it cannot retroactively collect that survey data. In the November CPI materials, BLS notes the gap explicitly and frames some headline CPI changes as a two month move from September to November, rather than the usual month to month cadence.

Who Is Affected

Anyone buying tickets for travel in the next eight to twelve weeks is most exposed to this shift because that is where airline pricing is typically the most dynamic. Leisure travelers with flexible dates can benefit the most, since airlines often discount more heavily on off peak days to rebuild load factors after a demand shock. Business travelers may see a smaller benefit on peak day and peak time flights, where airlines can still hold pricing power even in a softer market.

Travelers who booked in late summer and early fall, then stopped watching their fare, are also affected because a year over year decline of this size tends to coincide with more frequent flash sales and price drops at the route level. If you are holding a refundable ticket, a fare with no change penalty, or an award booking with free redeposit, you may have an opportunity to reprice.

Finally, the shutdown context means travelers should treat the CPI move as both a pricing signal and a systems signal. The same lapse that interrupted CPI data collection also strained aviation operations and traveler confidence, and those knock on effects can show up as short lived demand dips and then abrupt recoveries once normal staffing and services resume. For broader shutdown travel mechanics and buffers, How a government shutdown could affect travel is the most relevant explainer to keep handy.

What Travelers Should Do

If you are shopping right now, widen your search by one to two days in either direction and re run the same itinerary at least twice, once as a round trip and once as one way segments. When airfares are easing, airlines often change the cheapest inventory by day part and length of stay, so small shifts can produce outsized savings. Pair that with alerts on your exact route so you see drops quickly, and consider booking with miles or a fare class that preserves flexibility if you expect more pricing movement.

Use a simple decision threshold for rebooking versus waiting. If the current fare is already below what you consider acceptable and the schedule is ideal, book and protect the win with flexibility, rather than trying to squeeze an extra small drop. If the fare still feels high and you have at least three weeks before departure, waiting can be rational, but only if you have a clear walk away price where you book immediately to avoid a late spike on the dates you need. In markets that are capacity constrained, or on peak holiday dates, waiting can backfire even when the broader trend is down.

Over the next 24 to 72 hours, monitor three signals instead of just one price chart. Watch whether airlines expand or retract fare sales, watch whether schedule changes accelerate (a sign airlines are still re balancing capacity), and watch whether operational constraints or government policy headlines change traveler behavior quickly. A sudden demand rebound can tighten inventory fast, which is exactly why the same environment can produce cheap fares on one set of days and stubbornly high fares on another.

How It Works

The CPI airline fares measure is a broad index, not a promise that every route or travel date is cheaper. Airlines price seats through revenue management systems that constantly adjust based on booking pace, remaining inventory, seasonality, competitive behavior, and operational constraints like crew availability. When demand softens, airlines can open more low fare inventory, run promotions, or shift capacity, which can push the effective price paid downward even if the published schedule looks unchanged.

The 2025 federal funding lapse adds a second layer, which is why this particular CPI move deserves more skepticism than usual. BLS suspended most CPI operations during the lapse in appropriations from October 1, 2025, through November 12, 2025, did not issue an October 2025 CPI news release, and resumed CPI data collection on November 14, 2025. BLS also describes how it represents missing October data, and how November indexes were calculated when October survey pricing could not occur, which matters if you are trying to draw clean month to month conclusions from a period when the data collection process itself was disrupted.

The shutdown also likely hit airline demand directly, which is where the traveler relevance sharpens. In a December 3, 2025 filing, Delta said booking growth returned to expectations after a temporary softening in November related to the government shutdown, and it quantified a profit impact for the quarter. Alaska Air Group similarly told investors the shutdown drove FAA mandated flight reductions, led to cancellations, and pushed revenue trends sharply negative during the period, followed by a rebound that had not fully returned to pre shutdown trends. That pattern, a demand dip plus operational friction, can translate into short term discounting as airlines work to refill planes, and it can also cause second order ripple effects that travelers feel outside airfare alone. When flight schedules compress or re time, connections tighten, hotel night patterns change in hub cities, and ground transportation demand shifts suddenly, which can push up non airfare trip costs even when the ticket itself looks cheaper.

For travelers budgeting international trips, it is also worth remembering that airfare is only one moving part in total trip cost. Currency shifts, local inflation, and destination seasonality can outweigh a modest airfare move. If you are planning overseas travel later in 2025, U.S. Dollar Outlook and Travel Impact for 2025 is the best evergreen companion for thinking about the non airfare side of the budget.

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Air Travel