Hawaii visitor arrivals dip, what travelers should know
Hawaii visitor arrivals fell 4.4 percent in July 2025 to 873,430, and total visitor spending slipped 4.3 percent year over year. The decline came as transpacific air capacity contracted versus July 2024, and as key international markets, notably Japan and Canada, remained below pre-pandemic norms. Two years after the Maui wildfires, arrivals to Maui were nearly flat year over year, but still far below pre-wildfire July 2023. For travelers, the mix means fewer crowds in some places, but tighter flight options and uneven availability across islands.
Key Points
- Why it matters: Lower Hawaii visitor arrivals change flight choice, pricing, and on-island wait times.
- Travel impact: Fewer seats can push fares up on peak dates, while some attractions feel less crowded.
- What's next: Watch airline schedules and Maui's gradual rebound as the fall shoulder season approaches.
- Air seats to Hawaii fell versus July 2024, narrowing nonstop options.
- International recovery lagged, especially from Japan and Canada.
Snapshot
DBEDT's preliminary data show 873,430 total visitors in July 2025, down 4.4 percent from July 2024, with 99.7 percent arriving by air. Total spending was $1.95 billion, down 4.3 percent. U.S. West and U.S. East remained the largest sources, while Japan fell 1.4 percent and Canada declined 11.6 percent year over year. Transpacific seat supply also shrank compared with July 2024, which reduces itinerary flexibility and can concentrate demand on popular departure days. Maui hosted 235,529 visitors, down 0.3 percent year over year and 20.7 percent below pre-wildfire July 2023. For travelers, this translates to mixed conditions, with shorter lines at some sites, modestly improved hotel availability in select areas, and the need to plan flights earlier from constrained gateways like Daniel K. Inouye International Airport (HNL) and Kahului Airport (OGG).
Background
During and after the pandemic reopening, Hawaii saw a domestic tourism spike as pent-up demand surged. By mid-2022, visitor arrivals had recovered to roughly 92 percent of 2019 levels in some months, and spending often exceeded 2019 as stays lengthened and daily spend rose. That "revenge travel" wave made flights and car rentals scarce and pushed up prices, especially from the U.S. mainland, while international markets lagged. The trajectory shifted again in August 2023 after the Maui wildfires, which depressed Maui arrivals for months. In 2024 and into early 2025, statewide totals improved, but capacity, market mix, and island-by-island recovery remained uneven. July 2025 reflects that normalization phase, with softer arrivals, slightly tighter seat supply, and continued reliance on U.S. travelers while Japan and Canada remain below historical volumes.
Latest Developments
Hawaii visitor arrivals and spending eased in July 2025, tightening flight choice
Statewide arrivals declined 4.4 percent year over year in July 2025 to 873,430, with spending down 4.3 percent. Airlines operated fewer transpacific flights and seats than in July 2024, a signal that travelers should expect less day-to-day flexibility and earlier sellouts on popular nonstop routes. U.S. West and U.S. East still dominate the market, but both dipped versus last year, while Japan and Canada posted deeper percentage declines. Practical takeaway, book air earlier, consider midweek departures, and price nearby hubs if your home airport offers limited nonstop choices. If you plan last-minute, look at connecting itineraries that arrive late evening, then stage an interisland hop the next morning for better availability.
Maui two years on, steadier but still below pre-wildfire July 2023
Maui welcomed 235,529 visitors in July 2025, down 0.3 percent year over year and 20.7 percent below July 2023, the last pre-wildfire July. Hotel occupancy improved compared with July 2024, which indicates lodging availability is stabilizing as the island continues a measured recovery. For travelers, that mix means you may find rooms and cars in more areas than last year, but must still plan respectful, community-minded itineraries. Book ahead for high-demand activities in West Maui, verify operating hours, and build extra time for interisland connections through Kahului Airport (OGG). If your plans include volunteer or give-back experiences, coordinate with vetted programs and avoid drop-in visits to impacted neighborhoods.
From spike to settle, comparing 2021-2022's surge with 2025's cooldown
In 2021-2022, Hawaii's domestic rebound produced near-record spending even with fewer visitors than 2019, as longer stays and higher daily outlays drove totals above pre-pandemic levels. That era meant crowded beaches, thin rental-car fleets, and limited last-minute inventory. July 2025 looks different. Seats are fewer than a year ago, international markets remain soft, and the total visitor count sits well below 2019 for the same month. For you, the experience shifts from scarcity to strategy. Crowding eases selectively, especially at urban attractions outside weekends, but flight choice narrows. Target shoulder-season weeks, use flexible date search tools, and watch for short booking windows where airlines discount midweek departures to balance loads.
Analysis
For travelers, the July 2025 pullback creates a paradox. On the ground, fewer visitors can improve the experience, especially at popular sites on Oahu and around Maui's peak corridors, where lines and parking pressure lighten during non-holiday weeks. In the air, however, reduced transpacific capacity shrinks your margin for error. Nonstops from secondary mainland cities will sell out earlier, and peak-day fares may hold firm because the supply side is tighter than last summer. The most reliable value plays are midweek departures, shoulder-season weeks outside school breaks, and itineraries that combine a late-evening arrival to HNL with a morning interisland hop to your final island. That sequence often unlocks better award space and lower cash fares.
Market mix also matters. With Japan and Canada still below 2019 norms, Waikiki retail and some guided experiences that depend on those markets may run shorter hours or fewer departures. Plan ahead for language-specific tours and niche dining. Conversely, U.S. travelers continue to anchor demand, which means weekend crunch times on mainland-Hawaii trunk routes will persist. Expect modestly better availability on island-to-island flights than during the 2021-2022 surge, but keep buffers for connections at HNL and OGG.
Maui's recovery is steady, not instant. Occupancy has improved from 2024, but arrivals remain far below July 2023. That combination means more choice than a year ago, with continued sensitivity to community needs. Book refundable rates, confirm any volunteer components with legitimate partners, and avoid last-minute changes that strain small operators. Overall, this phase rewards flexible dates, early flight shopping, and itineraries that spread spending beyond the most crowded pockets.
Final Thoughts
Hawaii is past the all-out "revenge travel" crush, yet it is not back to 2019 patterns. July 2025 brought fewer visitors and fewer seats than last year, which nudges you to plan earlier for flights while enjoying a bit more breathing room on the ground. Maui's gradual recovery warrants thoughtful itineraries and confirmed bookings, especially if you want West Maui experiences. Use flexible date tools, consider midweek departures, and mix Honolulu staging with interisland hops for better availability. If you adapt to the new capacity and market mix, you will find a smoother trip and more room to roam, even as airlines fine-tune supply. That is the takeaway on Hawaii visitor arrivals.