Tropical Storm Jerry: What travelers need to know now

Published on Oct 8, 2025, 9:38 am CDT

5 min read

Tropical Storm Jerry is strengthening over the central Atlantic and tracking west-northwest toward the northern Leeward Islands. As of 8:00 a.m. AST on October 8, sustained winds were 50 mph, with tropical-storm watches posted for several islands and swells likely to reach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Forecast guidance calls for a turn north by Friday, keeping the core near or just north of the northern Leewards, then over open Atlantic waters with Bermuda watching late weekend into early next week. Airlines and cruise lines will adjust plans as conditions evolve.

Key points

Why it matters: Jerry could become a hurricane Thursday, bringing rain, gusts, and hazardous surf to the northern Leewards.
Travel impact: Expect schedule tweaks, longer connection buffers, and beach closures due to dangerous rip currents.
What's next: A northward turn Friday; Bermuda should monitor for late-weekend effects.
Tropical-storm watches: Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, St. Martin and St. Barts, Sint Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, Guadeloupe.
Swells spread to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Friday, increasing rip-current risk.

Snapshot

At 8:00 a.m. AST, Jerry's center was near 13.3N, 51.6W, moving west-northwest at 23 mph with 50 mph winds. Watches cover multiple northern Leeward Islands, where 2 to 4 inches of rain Thursday into early Friday could trigger flash flooding in higher terrain. Swell from Jerry should reach the Leewards Thursday and expand toward Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Friday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Forecasts indicate gradual strengthening with hurricane status possible on Thursday, followed by a slowdown and a turn to the north-northwest and north beginning Friday. Travelers headed to or connecting through the Caribbean should monitor airline advisories and consider flexible plans.

Background

The 2025 Atlantic season has featured several powerful hurricanes, and ocean heat remains elevated across the basin. Jerry formed on October 7 from a central Atlantic disturbance and became the tenth named storm of the season. While the current forecast favors a recurvature away from the U.S. East Coast, a separate coastal system could bring weekend rain, wind, and high surf to parts of the Carolinas through New England, compounding beach hazards and minor tidal flooding. For aviation, even distant tropical systems can prompt reroutes and ATC metering when oceanic tracks shift or island airports reduce acceptance rates. Expect rolling advisories as forecasts update.

Latest developments

Hurricane forecast and airport disruptions to watch

Jerry is forecast to strengthen and may reach hurricane intensity on October 9, then track near or just north of the northern Leewards late October 9 into October 10 before curving into the open Atlantic. Tropical-storm watches span Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, St. Martin and St. Barts, Sint Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Guadeloupe. Rain bands could drop 2 to 4 inches over mountainous terrain and produce brief power or road disruptions. By Friday, long-period swells and rip currents expand westward, affecting beaches in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands; Bermuda should track guidance for late-weekend fringe impacts. Air travelers connecting through San Juan's Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport (SJU) or Bermuda L.F. Wade International Airport (BDA) should allow extra time and watch for reflows, equipment swaps, and rolling delay programs if island winds or surf drive operational limits. For broader system impacts amid tight ATC staffing, see our related coverage: Controller sick calls climb during shutdown, putting new ... and Flight delays and airport impacts: October 6, 2025.

Analysis

For travelers, Jerry's primary risks over the next 72 hours are twofold: localized tropical-storm conditions in parts of the northern Leewards and widespread surf hazards radiating far from the core. Even with a turn away from the Greater Antilles, long-period swell will raise rip-current danger and may force beach restrictions in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands; coastal excursions could be curtailed. Aviation effects typically begin with crew and aircraft repositioning, conservative arrival rates at island airports, and longer connection times when oceanic routes compress. If the track edges closer to Bermuda late weekend, expect preemptive airline adjustments and possible cruise itinerary tweaks to avoid high seas east of the island. Mainland U.S. fliers should also watch a separate coastal low that could deliver rain, gusts, and minor tidal flooding from the Carolinas into New England, adding delays unrelated to Jerry but coincident in time. Bottom line: lock in flexible tickets, monitor carrier apps and airport notices, and build buffers around international connections.

Final thoughts

If your plans involve the northern Leewards, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Bermuda through early next week, stay glued to official forecasts. Shore excursions, ferries, and flight schedules can change quickly when a strengthening system approaches, even if the core remains offshore. Add extra time at SJU and BDA, keep beach days flexible, and watch for carrier waivers should Jerry reach hurricane strength. With prudent buffers and real-time alerts, most trips can adapt around Tropical Storm Jerry.