BMKG Tropical Lows, Bali Fast Boats Face Cancellations

Published on Dec 16, 2025, 1:51 pm CST

6 min read

Key points

BMKG's METAREA XI shipping bulletin on December 16, 2025 lists Tropical Cyclone Bakung and two tropical lows affecting the wider basin
BMKG marine forecasts show moderate sea states south of Bali plus moderate wave conditions in southern segments of the Bali and Lombok straits
Fast boats on the Bali to Nusa Penida corridor and Bali to Lombok and Gili corridors are most likely to be curtailed when sea states tighten
The Bali Strait vehicle ferry corridor can see slower operations or sailing adjustments even when outright suspension is limited
Travelers should build an overnight buffer for any itinerary that depends on a same day sea crossing and keep a flight backup between I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport (DPS) and Zainuddin Abdul Madjid International Airport (LOP)

Impact

Crossings Most At Risk: Open water fast boat routes from Bali to Nusa Penida, and Bali to Lombok and the Gili islands face the highest cancellation and rough ride risk
Misconnect Risk: Same day island hopping chains can break when one canceled sailing cascades into missed check ins, tours, and onward ferries
Flight Backup Pressure: Short notice switches to DPS to LOP flights can tighten inventory and raise fares if boats stop running for multiple departures
Ground Transfer Strain: When sailings cancel, rideshare and private driver demand spikes around Sanur, Padangbai, and airport area hotels
Itinerary Rework Time: Rebooking often requires day of confirmation, so travelers should assume decisions may shift inside 12 to 24 hours

BMKG's Indonesian Weather Bulletin for Shipping (METAREA XI) issued on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, flags Tropical Cyclone Bakung and two tropical lows in the broader region, while also projecting moderate sea states in waters south of Bali. That mix matters because south facing swell energy is the usual trigger for rough, uncomfortable crossings and for fast boat operators to suspend departures at short notice. Travelers moving between Bali, Lombok, Nusa Penida, and the Gili islands should assume a higher chance of cancellations, then plan buffers, check operator updates repeatedly, and keep a flight backup for any time sensitive move.

In plain language, BMKG tropical lows Bali fast boats conditions are elevated because the official shipping bulletin shows active tropical features in the basin, and BMKG's local maritime forecasts continue to show moderate waves in the straits used by tourist fast boats.

Who Is Affected

Anyone with a booked fast boat between Bali and Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan, Lombok, or the Gili islands is most exposed, because those routes cross straits where swell can stack quickly, and because smaller craft have narrower operating margins when wave heights rise. BMKG's strait level forecasts on December 16, 2025 show moderate wave potential in the southern Bali Strait and southern Lombok Strait, and moderate conditions in Selat Badung, a key waterway tied to Bali's east and southeast departure points. Even if the Bali Sea itself is forecast as comparatively calmer in the shipping bulletin, the tourist problem is that many itineraries still touch the more exposed southern segments on the way to island piers.

The knock on effects go beyond the boat ticket. When a morning sailing cancels, passengers often roll into the next departures, which can trigger crowding at check in points, baggage handling bottlenecks at piers, and missed hotel check ins on the receiving island. The second layer is air travel, as travelers switch to same day flights between I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport (DPS) and Zainuddin Abdul Madjid International Airport (LOP), which can tighten seats and raise last minute prices. The third layer is ground transport and tours, because private drivers, shared shuttles, and day tour operators tend to surge price and fill up when a large group suddenly needs to move by road instead of sea.

For context and recent patterning, conditions earlier in the week already produced a BMKG high wave period that disrupted ferry planning around Bali through December 15, 2025, and the current bulletin keeps the risk profile elevated rather than resetting to a stable window. See Bali High Waves To Disrupt Ferries December 12 to 15 for background on how quickly fast boat schedules can tighten when the southern straits move into the moderate band.

What Travelers Should Do

Start by treating every sea crossing as provisional until you have a same day confirmation. Check your operator's messaging, WhatsApp, or email the night before, then again early in the morning, and plan to be flexible about which pier you depart from if they consolidate sailings. If you must check luggage, keep essentials, medications, chargers, and one change of clothes in a small bag you can carry with you, because pier side reshuffles often separate passengers from their larger bags for longer than expected. If your itinerary has a hard deadline, build an overnight buffer on the departure island, because a same day rescue flight is not guaranteed at a sensible price.

Use a simple decision threshold for rebooking versus waiting. If you are trying to catch an international departure out of DPS, or you have a non refundable tour start on Lombok or the Gilis, do not gamble on a same day fast boat once you see cancellations begin for the route, switch to an earlier day, or switch to flying via DPS to LOP and then continue by road and local transfer. If your plans are flexible and your only cost is a hotel night, waiting can be rational, but only if you can tolerate arriving a full day late without breaking onward reservations.

Over the next 24 to 72 hours, monitor BMKG updates rather than social media chatter. The METAREA XI bulletin is a basin wide signal for active tropical features, while the local strait forecasts are the practical go or no go for your crossing. Watch specifically for continued moderate conditions in the southern Bali and Lombok straits and for any expanded high wave advisories, then be ready to relocate your staging base on Bali to somewhere with easy access to both piers and the airport area if you need to pivot quickly.

Background

Fast boat reliability in Bali, Lombok, Nusa Penida, and the Gili islands is less about rainfall on land and more about sea state in a handful of narrow straits. The Bali Strait sits between Bali and Java, Selat Badung separates Bali from Nusa Penida, and the Lombok Strait sits between Bali and Lombok, and all three can see conditions degrade quickly when wave energy concentrates in southern facing waters. BMKG's METAREA XI bulletin on December 16, 2025 explicitly projects moderate seas south of Bali and lists multiple tropical features in the broader basin, which is a reminder that even when local winds feel manageable onshore, swell can still make crossings uncomfortable or unsafe.

When fast boats suspend departures, the travel system reacts in predictable layers. First, passengers are stranded at the departure side piers, which creates congestion, then forces consolidation into fewer sailings once conditions ease. Second, travelers substitute flights, which shifts pressure onto DPS and LOP departures, and can also create missed connections if your original plan relied on a precise boat arrival time. Third, hotels, tours, and private transfers absorb the shock, because check in windows, dive trips, surf lessons, and inter island pickups are often built around those boat timetables. The traveler friendly move is to plan around those layers, not just the crossing itself.