Rhine River Water Levels Outlook, Week of November 17, 2025

Published on Jun 22, 2025, 7:03 pm CDTUpdated on Nov 16, 2025, 7:08 pm CST

7 min read

The Rhine at Kaub, the key choke point for both cargo traffic and river cruises, is currently running well above low water trigger levels, with healthy depth for navigation on the Middle Rhine. ^1,2,3 Forecasts for the Koblenz and Bingen corridor show a classic late autumn pattern, cool temperatures, scattered showers, and no sign of a prolonged extreme rain or new drought event in the next week. ^6,7,8 Travelers booked on late November Rhine sailings can treat near term risk as Normal, but should still coordinate with their cruise line, lock in change friendly or Cancel For Any Reason coverage while purchase windows remain open, and stay alert to any new winter storm patterns beyond ten days. ^5,9,10,11

Current Conditions

Primary gauge: Kaub, Pegel Kaub, on the Middle Rhine between Bingen and Koblenz, widely treated as the decisive reference point for navigation because this is one of the shallowest sections of the river. ^1,2,3 Recent data show the Kaub gauge around 5.6 ft, 1.71 m, which is comfortably above the equivalent low water reference near 2.6 ft, 0.78 m, used in long term flow statistics and drought monitoring. ^1,3,4

Hydrology notes for Kaub explain that the gauge value does not equal riverbed depth directly, since the navigation channel is managed to maintain an ideal depth, roughly 6.2 ft, 1.9 m, with the gauge value, ideal depth, and equivalent level combined to define usable draft. ^2,3 Long term studies use the number of days with flow below the 0.78 m equivalent as a benchmark for severe low water, which has increased freight costs and forced lighter loading in recent drought years. ^3,4,9

Today, by contrast, Kaub is in a mid range band that supports normal cargo drafts and river cruise operations, and there are no broad low water restrictions reported for the main corridor between Bingen, Koblenz, and Cologne. ^1,3,5 Risk level for river cruising on the Middle Rhine in the coming days is Normal. ^1,3,5

Seven-Day Outlook

Seven day gauge trend at Kaub, feet and meters

Climatology for the Rhine valley around Koblenz in November points to very cold, often damp conditions, with typical highs in the mid 40s to low 50s °F, about 7 to 11 °C, and lows in the mid 30s to near 40 °F, about 2 to 5 °C. ^6,7,8 Forecasts for mid to late November 2025 show a similar pattern, with day by day guidance calling for a mix of clouds, some light or moderate rain showers, and a few drier windows, but no multi day deluge focused squarely on the Middle Rhine. ^6,7,8

Putting that together, a reasonable expectation is total precipitation on the order of 0.3 to 0.8 in, roughly 8 to 20 mm, over the next week near Koblenz and Bingen, which is enough to maintain or slightly lift Rhine levels, not to trigger a sudden large flood crest. ^6,7,8 With Kaub already above the low water thresholds that troubled shipping in spring and early summer 2025, and no imminent heavy rain train in the models, the seven day navigation call for river cruises on the Middle Rhine is Normal. ^1,3,5,9

Three-Week Risk Forecast

Period	Likelihood of Disruption	Confidence
Days 1 to 7	Normal	High
Days 8 to 14	Normal	Medium
Days 15 to 21	Caution	Low

In the medium range, Rhine flow studies show a well defined seasonal cycle, with a falling limb from late summer into November, then a gradual transition toward higher winter and spring discharges driven by snowmelt and Atlantic storms. ^4,9 Climate projections also suggest that by late century, low flow episodes around Kaub will become more frequent and more intense, but for the mid 2020s, the bigger operational story has been episodic drought years, such as 2018 and the early 2025 heat and dryness that cut barge loads, rather than a permanent shift. ^3,4,9,10

Given current healthy levels and a benign near term forecast, Days 1 to 7 and 8 to 14 both sit comfortably in the Normal band for river cruising, with only small chances of disruption from either sudden low water or sharp high water. ^{1,3,5,6,7,8,11} The Days 15 to 21 window earns a Caution label mainly because both sustained dry spells and early winter storm sequences become possible beyond the ten day predictability horizon, so travelers should treat any specific late November or early December disruption scenario as low probability but not impossible. ^4,5,9,10,11

Cruise-Line Responses

Data unavailable.

Major river cruise operators that focus on the Rhine have not, as of mid November 2025, issued broad public notices of route wide cancellations or long term alterations specifically tied to Rhine water levels in late November, and recent trade and traveler reports focus more on schedule tweaks earlier in 2025 during low water periods than on current disruptions. ^5,9,10,12

Traveler Advice

If you are already booked to sail the Rhine in the coming week, you can plan on a Normal hydrological setup and focus instead on the practicalities of cold season travel. ^1,3,6,7,8,11 Build at least a two to three hour buffer into rail or air connections into your embarkation city, often Amsterdam, Cologne, or Basel, because late autumn fog, routine rail delays, and airline knock on effects remain more likely than river closures. ^6,7,11 Pack layered clothing, a warm waterproof shell, gloves, and shoes that grip wet cobblestones so you can enjoy castle viewpoints and town walks even in drizzle and temperatures in the 40s °F, mid single digits °C. ^6,7,11

Near term shoppers looking at late November or early December Rhine itineraries should treat water levels as a background factor, not a reason to avoid the river entirely. ^4,5,9,10,11 Industry reports and traveler forums show that when water levels do drift toward problem zones, lines tend to respond with reduced sailing distances, ship swaps, coach segments, or port substitutions rather than simply canceling every departure, especially on popular Middle Rhine castle stretches. ^9,10,11,12 When comparing offers, ask specifically how each operator handled the 2018 and 2022 drought seasons, and the low water events earlier in 2025, and whether they provide future cruise credits or partial refunds if your cruise is materially altered by water levels. ^9,10,11

For travelers planning Rhine cruises more than three weeks out, the smartest strategy is to combine realistic expectations with flexible planning. ^4,9,10,11 Use long term river outlooks and official low flow monitoring pages as a big picture guide, note that late autumn 2025 is expected to have better depth than the hot, dry summer, and then coordinate with a travel advisor to choose itineraries and insurance products that match your risk tolerance. ^{4,5,8,9,10,11} For high risk trips, such as those with tight flight connections or once in a decade family gatherings, consider policies that include Cancel For Any Reason or robust trip interruption coverage, keeping in mind that many of these must be purchased within a short window after your initial trip deposit. ¹¹

Methodology

This outlook combines recent gauge data for Kaub from CCNR based feeds, long term Rhine low flow and climate studies, low water impact reports from industry and news sources, ensemble weather forecasts and climate normals for Koblenz and the Middle Rhine valley, traveler and cruise industry reporting on recent disruption seasons, and internal river cruise risk thresholds, with metric values converted to U S units using standard factors such as 3.281 ft per meter and 0.039 in per millimeter. ^{1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12}

Disclaimer

Forecasts beyond ten days are probabilistic and may change without notice. This information does not constitute financial or insurance advice.