Executive Summary
The Rhine is running lower than average, but not yet low enough to halt passenger vessels, with most cruises operating normally though cargo barges are already light‑loading. Forecast models point to a gradual drop of about 15 cm over the next week and a heightened chance of navigation limits in early July, so travelers should monitor updates and keep flexible plans.
Current Conditions
The decisive Kaub gauge read 1.70 m on 20 June 2025, versus a long‑term mean of 2.24 m (normal range 1.9–2.5 m). This places the Middle Rhine in the Caution bracket for Cruise navigation.12
Seven‑Day Outlook
| Date | Forecast Level (m) | Risk Label |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 23 Jun | 1.39 | Caution |
| Tue 24 Jun | 1.38 | Caution |
| Wed 25 Jun | 1.36 | Caution |
| Thu 26 Jun | 1.36 | Caution |
| Fri 27 Jun | 1.35 | Caution |
| Sat 28 Jun | 1.34 | Caution |
| Sun 29 Jun | 1.33 | Caution |
These values come from the Federal Waterways forecast (ELWIS) issued 22 June 2025 and show a slow, steady decline but no immediate approach to the 0.75 m low‑water threshold.3
Three‑Week Risk Forecast
| Period | Likelihood of Disruption | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Days 1–7 | Caution | High |
| Days 8–14 | Caution → Disruption | Medium |
| Days 15–21 | Disruption possible | Low. |
Continued high‑pressure over the Rhine basin and the Joint Research Centre’s outlook for below‑average rainfall point toward further drops, especially if late‑June heat persists. Consider Cancel‑For‑Any‑Reason coverage to avoid penalties if segments are shifted to motor‑coach.4
Cruise‑Line Responses
Spokesperson for Viking Cruises reports that June sailings are operating on schedule, though itineraries south of Koblenz may swap docking positions day‑to‑day to stay within channel depth.4 Spokesperson for AmaWaterways notes that, if low water blocks a stretch, the line will bus guests around the affected reach and adjust daily programs at the captain’s discretion.5
Traveler Advice
Plan extra time around embarkation cities because low water sometimes forces coaches to meet the ship in an alternate port. Keep luggage light so you can manage transfers without porters. Purchase Cancel‑For‑Any‑Reason or itinerary‑change coverage; standard trip‑cancellation policies rarely cover hydrological delays. Ask your advisor to confirm that the policy explicitly names “natural conditions” or “common carrier delay” as covered events. Stay flexible on shore‑excursion timing. When water is low, ships may sail short morning repositioning runs, shifting Tours to afternoons or evenings. A dress‑in‑layers approach lets you adapt to warmer afternoons if excursions move later in the day.
Methodology
Gauge data come from ELWIS’s Kaub forecast, combined with ECMWF precipitation ensembles and MacroMicro historical records to rate risk by navigation depth.6
Disclaimer
Forecasts beyond ten days are probabilistic and may change without notice. This information does not constitute financial or insurance advice.
Sources
- MacroMicro daily Rhine water level, Kaub
- Kaub Gauging Station reference values, Wikipedia
- Federal Waterways ELWIS – 7‑day forecast, Kaub gauge
- Reuters – Rain lifts Rhine levels, normal loads north of Cologne, 25 Apr 2025
- AmaWaterways FAQ – water‑level contingency
- Federal Waterways ELWIS data specification
FAQ
- How low must the Rhine fall before cruises cancel? Most lines start bus‑bridging below about 0.75 m at Kaub, and full cancellations are considered below 0.40 m.2
- Does insurance cover low‑water interruptions? Only Cancel‑For‑Any‑Reason or policies that list “natural conditions” as a covered peril provide reliable protection.
- Do high levels cause problems too? Yes, when the gauge exceeds about 6.4 m at Kaub, authorities halt passenger traffic for safety, but that is rare in summer.2