The Poses navigation gauge just upstream from Rouen reads a healthy nine feet, so the Lower Seine begins the week at Normal risk.¹ Models show only a slow two-inch decline through mid-July, meaning Paris-to-Normandy cruises should proceed as scheduled barring an extended dry spell.²
Current Conditions
Vigicrues station "Seine à Poses (H322011001)" posts 2.80 m (9.2 ft) at 08:00 CEST on July 7 [seasonal comfort band 2.3 - 4.5 m], comfortably above the 2.3 m low-water caution line, so navigation risk is Normal.¹
Seven-Day Outlook
| Date | Forecast Level (ft) | Navigation Risk | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7 Jul | 9.2 | Normal | Falling |
| Tue 8 Jul | 9.1 | Normal | Falling |
| Wed 9 Jul | 9.0 | Normal | Falling |
| Thu 10 Jul | 8.9 | Normal | Falling |
| Fri 11 Jul | 8.9 | Normal | Steady |
| Sat 12 Jul | 8.8 | Normal | Falling |
| Sun 13 Jul | 8.8 | Normal | Steady |
Figures are the JRC EFAS 15-day ensemble median for the Seine virtual station nearest Poses, converted to feet.²
Three-Week Risk Forecast
| Period | Likelihood of Disruption | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Days 1-7 | Normal | High |
| Days 8-14 | Caution | Medium |
| Days 15-21 | Caution | Low |
A stationary Atlantic ridge is shunting most summer storms north of the Seine basin, leaving northern France warm and drier than normal.³ Only one in four ensemble members shows appreciable rainfall before July 25, so gauges should drift lower until the ridge breaks. Keep Cancel-For-Any-Reason coverage active until conditions stabilize.
Cruise-Line Responses
Avalon Waterways reports all "Paris to Normandy" sailings on schedule, but captains will trim potable-water and fuel loads if Poses falls below 2.60 m, with real-time notices on the Travel Alerts portal.⁴ Viking River Cruises confirms no itinerary changes yet and posts updates on its Current Sailings page should low draft delay transits at La Havre or Rouen.⁵
Traveler Advice
Plan to embark and disembark in Paris as ticketed, but reconfirm exact pier assignments 48 hours before departure because Port de Paris occasionally reallocates berths when drafts tighten. Keep medications, electronics, and valuables in a daypack so you can move quickly if the ship off-loads freshwater or fuel mid-cruise.
July afternoons often top 85 °F along the open reaches toward Vernon and Les Andelys. Pack a reusable water bottle, broad-spectrum sunscreen, and lightweight, moisture-wicking clothing to stay comfortable during château walks.
If your return flight schedule is tight, book a fare that allows same-day changes. A surprise upstream thunderstorm can lift levels several inches, forcing temporary bridge holds that delay disembarkation and ripple through transfers at Charles-de-Gaulle Airport.
Methodology
Current-condition data come from Vigicrues gauge H322011001 "Seine à Poses," and forecasts use the JRC EFAS 15-day ensemble hydrographs down-scaled for the Seine basin.¹ ²
Disclaimer
Forecasts beyond ten days are probabilistic and may change without notice. This information does not constitute financial or insurance advice.
Sources
- Vigicrues station H322011001 "Seine à Poses" real-time gauge summary
- JRC EFAS near-real-time hydrographs dataset
- Météo-France weekly precipitation outlook, bulletin of July 5 2025
- Avalon Waterways - Travel Alerts portal
- Viking River Cruises - Updates on Current Sailings
FAQ
- Why does the Seine drop faster than alpine-fed rivers? It relies mainly on rainfall, so evaporation lowers levels quickly when storms miss Normandy.¹
- Could a single storm raise levels enough to disrupt docking? Yes, a strong downpour can lift the gauge several inches in hours, briefly closing low bridges near Rouen until flows recede.³
- Will Cruise lines refund if low water blocks ports? Most contracts offer future-cruise credit or partial refunds when low water prevents core itinerary stops, but policies vary, so review your terms carefully.⁴