Invest 94L may become Imelda near the Bahamas

Published on Sep 25, 2025, 4:09 pm CDT

5 min read

A disturbance now spreading rain over the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos is expected to consolidate near the Bahamas by September 26. The National Hurricane Center gives the system a high chance to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, which would take the name Imelda. Some model scenarios show a turn toward the Southeast U.S. early next week, while others keep the system offshore. Rough surf and rip currents are likely along parts of the East Coast regardless of the final track.

Key points

Why it matters: Development near land can tighten planning windows for flights, cruises, and beach travel.
Travel impact: Periods of heavy rain and squalls could disrupt Bahamas interisland flights and ferries Friday into the weekend.
What's next: NHC says a depression could form near the Bahamas by September 26; U.S. Southeast risks become clearer once a center forms.
Humberto's distant swell adds rip-current risk along the U.S. East Coast.
Watch for airline waivers if guidance shifts toward a U.S. land interaction.

Snapshot

As of the afternoon outlook on September 25, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) was monitoring Invest 94L, a disturbance producing disorganized showers and storms near Hispaniola. NHC indicates a high probability of formation within seven days, with conditions becoming more favorable as the system slows over the warm waters near the Bahamas by Friday. Near-term hazards include bands of heavy rain and gusty winds for the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos, then the northwest Bahamas. A separate system, Tropical Storm Humberto, will likely become a major hurricane well offshore, still sending long-period swells that elevate rip-current risk along parts of the U.S. East Coast. Forecast confidence for 94L's track remains low until a defined center forms.

Background

The next Atlantic storm name for 2025 is Imelda, following Gabrielle and Humberto on this year's list. When disturbances form close to land, watches and warnings can be issued on short notice, compressing airline and cruise decision timelines. Steering for 94L will depend on how quickly it organizes and how it interacts with the subtropical ridge and the broader wind field around Humberto. While some media have discussed the Fujiwhara effect, confidence in any interaction remains limited until the distance and intensity of both systems are better sampled. Travelers should focus on practical hazards first: heavy rain bands, squally winds, and dangerous surf along exposed Atlantic beaches.

Latest developments

Invest 94L Bahamas outlook and early U.S. Southeast scenarios

NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook highlights a likely tropical depression forming near the Bahamas by September 26, with formation chances listed as high over the next several days. Guidance spreads include tracks curving offshore and tracks nudging toward the Southeast coastline from Florida to the Carolinas early next week. Until a closed center emerges, intensity and track forecasts will carry larger-than-normal error. For now, plan for intermittent downpours and brief flight or ferry delays across the Bahamas, plus building surf and rip currents along the Southeast coast this weekend into early next week. Check airline notifications and consider flexible hotel rates if you have near-term trips to Nassau or South Florida.

Analysis

For aviation, the first operational pinch point is likely intermittent convective delays around Lynden Pindling International Airport (NAS) as banding increases, followed by possible schedule thinning if advisories are issued. South Florida hubs, including Miami International Airport (MIA) and Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL), are sensitive to offshore squall clusters that can trigger ground stops and reroutes even without a direct landfall. Cruise lines staging Bahamas short breaks will watch sea state and tender limits; elevated swell and onshore winds can close exposed piers or cancel tenders even under modest winds. Beach travelers from northeast Florida through the Carolinas should treat red-flag days seriously and use guarded beaches as Humberto's long-period swell overlaps with 94L's local wind waves. The decision window for airline waivers typically opens once watches or warnings are in play or guidance tightens; until then, refundable or flexible bookings provide the best hedge. Keep a close eye on NHC advisories at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m., and 8 p.m. EDT, and expect forecast confidence to step-change once a center forms.

Final thoughts

We will learn much more once Invest 94L consolidates near the Bahamas on September 26. Until then, travelers should budget for passing squalls, ferry and small-aircraft disruptions, and dangerous surf along parts of the U.S. East Coast. If guidance shifts toward a closer U.S. approach, expect airlines and cruise lines to issue targeted waivers and itinerary changes with short notice. Monitor official updates and local advisories while you plan conservatively around the evolving Invest 94L Bahamas outlook.

For concurrent Atlantic hazards, see our Azores coverage: Azores hurricane warning as Gabrielle nears Thursday.