Atlantic tropics: Humberto swells, Bahamas system

Published on Sep 26, 2025, 10:24 am CDT

6 min read

Hurricane Humberto is strengthening over the open Atlantic and is expected to reach major status this weekend while staying well offshore. Even without a landfall, long-period swell and dangerous rip currents will build along parts of the U.S. East Coast and in Bermuda through early next week. A separate disturbance near the Bahamas has a high chance of organizing in the next 24 to 48 hours, with some model scenarios pointing toward the Southeast U.S. early next week. Travelers should monitor coastal hazard statements and check with airlines and cruise lines for any adjustments.

Key points

Why it matters: Swell from Humberto will raise surf and rip-current risk for popular beaches.
Travel impact: Periodic flight or cruise timing tweaks are possible if seas build near Bermuda or the Bahamas.
What's next: The Bahamas disturbance could develop within 24-48 hours and approach the Southeast early next week.
Humberto may reach major hurricane intensity while remaining over open water.
Coastal hazard timing for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic looks highest Tuesday into Wednesday.

Snapshot

As of the 8 a.m. EDT update on September 26, Humberto's maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph, with the center near 22.2N 57.3W and a minimum pressure of 990 mb. Hurricane-force winds extended about 10 miles from the center, with tropical-storm-force winds out to 105 miles. Significant strengthening is forecast this weekend. The Bermuda Weather Service lists Humberto as a "potential threat," with the closest approach early next week still several hundred miles south of the island. Separately, the National Hurricane Center's outlook highlights a high chance of tropical cyclone formation near the Bahamas in the next one to two days. NWS coastal briefings indicate long-period swell arriving Monday, with peak surf, rip-current risk, and some coastal overwash most likely Tuesday into Wednesday.

Background

Long-period swell from intense hurricanes often arrives days before any closest pass, creating deceptively strong nearshore currents. Humberto's broad wind field, combined with its slow movement over the central Atlantic, will send energy toward the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. Bermuda, located roughly 640 miles east of Cape Hatteras, frequently sees large surf from recurving Atlantic hurricanes that pass well to the south and west. The separate Bahamas disturbance is developing in a warm-water corridor with relatively favorable upper-level winds. While track confidence remains low before a center forms, early scenarios range from a coastal approach to a curve northeastward offshore. Travelers should follow local National Weather Service offices and the Bermuda Weather Service for beach and marine hazards, and rely on airline or cruise operator alerts for any schedule adjustments.

Latest developments

Humberto's forecast and coastal hazard timing

The National Hurricane Center expects rapid strengthening, with Humberto likely reaching major hurricane intensity over the weekend while remaining over the open Atlantic. The Bermuda Weather Service categorizes the system as a potential threat, with current guidance keeping the closest approach several hundred miles south of the island early next week. Along the U.S. coast, NWS Newport/Morehead City's briefing indicates long-period swell arriving Monday, then peaking Tuesday into Wednesday with dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves. Beach conditions may vary hour by hour with tides and local bathymetry, so swimmers should heed flag systems and lifeguard advice. Air travel is typically unaffected by distant swell, but crosswinds and low ceilings from unrelated fronts could still cause typical delays.

Bahamas disturbance organizing; early U.S. Southeast scenarios

A disturbance near the Bahamas shows a high likelihood of becoming a tropical depression within 24-48 hours. The NHC discussion notes a probable northwest to northward track across the southwestern Atlantic. Should a tighter core consolidate, periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, and rough seas could reach the Georgia and Carolinas coastline as soon as Monday or Tuesday, depending on exact track and timing. A sharper turn out to sea remains plausible if steering currents strengthen. Because coastal seas may become rough even without a landfall, small craft and ferry operations could see intermittent restrictions. Airlines generally keep normal schedules until definitive low-level centers and impacts are clearer.

Cruises and airlines: what we're seeing now

As of this morning, there are no widespread airline schedule changes tied directly to Humberto or the Bahamas disturbance. Cruise operators routinely swap port days or modify routes to avoid rough seas. Expect short-notice timing adjustments for calls in the Bahamas or around Bermuda if swell builds faster than forecast. Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and other lines direct guests to official travel update pages for any voyage-specific notices. If you are sailing this weekend, watch for app notifications, revised port orders, or substituted ports. For context on swell-driven surf hazards from this hurricane, see our earlier coverage: Tropical Storm Humberto major hurricane surf and Invest 94L Bahamas Imelda outlook.

Analysis

The risk profile for travelers hinges more on surf and marine conditions than on direct wind impacts. Humberto's expected intensification over the central Atlantic, combined with a slow drift, is a classic setup for multi-day swell events. This favors a Tuesday-Wednesday peak for the Carolinas and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, with lingering hazards thereafter. Bermuda sees elevated surf as the hurricane passes well to the south; current guidance suggests the island remains outside hurricane-force wind radii, but marine conditions could still disrupt shore excursions and tender operations. The Bahamas disturbance adds uncertainty east of the Southeast coast. Until a closed circulation forms, model spread stays wide, and small shifts in the ridge to the north will drive large differences in outcome. Practical takeaways for travelers: lock in flexible fares, monitor rebooking windows, and prioritize refundable shore plans. For beach days, pick guarded beaches, avoid inlets and piers, and expect red or double-red flags at times. For cruises, anticipate port-order swaps and possible speed-run diversions to calmer waters.

Final thoughts

For now, the most certain effect is coastal surf and rip-current risk from Humberto. The Bahamas disturbance could add wind and rain impacts along the Southeast coast early next week, but confidence will improve once a center forms. Check local NWS briefings, the Bermuda Weather Service, and your operator's alerts through mid-week. If you plan to swim or surf, choose guarded beaches, obey flags, and avoid jetties. We will continue to track guidance on both systems and update coastal timing, marine advisories, and any confirmed travel changes tied to the Atlantic tropics.