Thanksgiving Travel Surge To Test TSA Lines Nov. 30

Published on Nov 22, 2025, 9:39 am CST

8 min read

Key points

TSA expects to screen more than 17.8 million passengers from November 25 to December 2 with over 3 million on Sunday November 30
AAA projects about 81.8 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles for Thanksgiving with roughly 6 million flying domestically
Eight of the ten busiest checkpoint days in TSA history have already occurred in 2025 with average daily volume now about 2.48 million screenings
Full REAL ID enforcement and a proposed $18 alternative ID fee mean travelers without compliant identification face higher costs and extra screening
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has launched a civility campaign urging passengers to be nice which has sparked debate over dress codes and behavior messaging

Impact

Where Delays Are Most Likely: Expect long security queues and potential bottlenecks at major U.S. hubs such as Atlanta Denver Dallas Fort Worth Chicago O Hare Los Angeles and the New York airports especially during morning and late afternoon peaks
Best Times To Fly: Very early morning departures midday on Thanksgiving Day itself and later evening flights outside the traditional Tuesday Wednesday and Sunday rush windows are likely to move more smoothly
Onward Travel And Changes: Avoid tight domestic connections under two hours build at least three hours for international connections and keep same ticket itineraries where possible so airlines can rebook you if security delays cascade
What Travelers Should Do Now: Confirm that everyone in your party has a compliant REAL ID or passport review TSA rules on liquids and food enroll in TSA PreCheck if possible and shift flights away from Sunday November 30 if you can
ID And Security Checks: Travelers who arrive without acceptable ID should expect extra questioning fees under the proposed $18 alternative verification program and no guarantee of boarding so checking documents before leaving home is critical

The Thanksgiving TSA screening surge will push airports across the United States toward new records from November 25 to December 2, with security officers expecting to process more than 17.8 million passengers and more than 3 million in a single day on Sunday, November 30. That volume sits on top of a year that has already delivered eight of the ten busiest checkpoint days in TSA history and average daily screenings of about 2.48 million travelers. Air passengers, especially those connecting through the largest hubs or flying at peak times, should budget extra time, avoid tight layovers, and treat schedule flexibility as a core part of their Thanksgiving plans.

In practical terms, the Thanksgiving TSA screening surge means holiday travelers passing through U.S. airports will see heavier queues, stricter identification checks under full REAL ID enforcement, and wider knock on effects when storms or staffing gaps slow security lanes during the holiday week.

TSA vs AAA numbers, and what they really measure

TSA and AAA are talking about different slices of the same rush, which explains why their headline numbers do not match at first glance. TSA is counting people who physically pass through airport checkpoints, a forecast of more than 17.8 million flyers between Tuesday, November 25, and Tuesday, December 2, with over 3 million on Sunday, November 30 alone. AAA, by contrast, projects about 81.8 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home over a slightly shorter window from Tuesday, November 25, to Monday, December 1, with roughly 6 million choosing domestic flights and the majority driving.

For an individual traveler, that split matters because the AAA forecast explains why roads into and around major hubs will be packed at the same time security lines are swelling inside the terminal. Someone connecting through Hartsfield Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) or Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) on November 30 will be competing not only with record air demand but also with heavy highway congestion feeding those airports.

A record setting year at airport checkpoints

Even before the Thanksgiving wave, 2025 has been a record year for checkpoint traffic. TSA data show eight of the ten highest volume screening days in the agency's history have occurred this year, and more than 3 million travelers were screened on nine of those top ten days. Average daily volume sits around 2.48 million passengers, up about 14,000 per day from 2024.

Airlines are planning for those crowds as well. Industry group Airlines for America expects carriers to handle around 31 million passengers over the broader Thanksgiving holiday period, with the busiest days likely to be Sunday, November 30, and Monday, December 1. To meet that demand, airlines are adding seats and flights where they can, but airport infrastructure, runway capacity, and security lane throughput still set hard limits on how many people can move during each peak hour.

The lingering impact of the 43 day government shutdown

This surge is also the first major holiday test after the record 43 day government shutdown earlier this month, which forced tens of thousands of Transportation Security Administration officers and air traffic controllers to work without pay. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has promised $10,000 bonuses for TSA staff who showed exemplary service during the shutdown, but it will take time for staffing rosters and overtime budgets to fully stabilize.

Travelers are unlikely to see checkpoints closed outright because of the shutdown hangover, but they may notice thinner staffing at some lanes, longer breaks between shift changes, or slower responses when weather or inbound flight delays push waves of passengers into security at once. That risk is highest at already stressed hubs like Chicago O Hare International Airport (ORD) and Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), and at smaller regional airports where a few absent officers can cut available lanes in half.

Background: REAL ID rules and the new $18 safety valve

Since May 7, 2025, adult travelers have needed either a REAL ID compliant license or another accepted document such as a passport to pass through airport security checkpoints. Enforcement has been firmer than in earlier grace periods, although TSA continues to offer alternative identity verification for the minority of passengers who show up without acceptable ID.

Now the agency is proposing to charge an $18 fee for that backup process under a new modernized alternative identity verification program. The fee would cover TSA's costs to run biometric kiosks or similar technology, and it would be valid for ten days, but it would not guarantee that a traveler clears security if their identity cannot be verified. For Thanksgiving week, that means anyone banking on the new program to rescue them from a missing wallet is gambling with both money and time.

In practice, travelers should treat a compliant REAL ID, passport, or other accepted document as non negotiable. Families and groups should check documents the night before departure, confirm that licenses have the required REAL ID star or state enhanced notation, and keep passports where they will not be forgotten in rideshares or hotel safes. Those who still lack compliant ID should consider moving holiday flights to less busy days and build even more buffer around security in case they are diverted into the slower alternative verification process.

Behavior rules, civility campaigns, and unruly passengers

Alongside the operational planning, the Department of Transportation is trying to influence how people behave once they reach the airport. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has launched a civility campaign built around a "be nice" message and reminders to dress respectfully on planes, including a widely shared interview on Fox Business and social clips framed as a throwback to a golden age of air travel.

Critics argue that clothing is not the core driver of unruly passenger incidents, which surged during the pandemic and remain above 2019 levels despite a zero tolerance approach from regulators. For travelers, the practical takeaway is that airlines and crews will be especially quick to clamp down on disruptive behavior during an already tense holiday period, and that confrontations in crowded gate areas or packed cabins can still lead to denied boarding or permanent bans.

How to plan around November 30 and other peak days

Sunday, November 30, is expected to be one of the busiest days in TSA history, with more than 3 million travelers forecast at checkpoints nationwide. The Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving will be close behind, especially in the afternoon and early evening as work schedules collide with departure banks.

Travelers who can shift trips to Thanksgiving Day itself or to off peak hours will likely see shorter lines and more same day recovery options if something goes wrong. Those locked into peak dates should aim to arrive at the airport at least three hours before domestic departures and four hours before international flights from the busiest hubs, particularly if they are checking bags or traveling with children.

Enrollment in TSA PreCheck remains one of the most effective ways to cut screening time, but lines in the dedicated lanes can still stretch during extreme peaks. PreCheck members should make sure their Known Traveler Numbers are correctly attached to every booking and boarding pass, including codeshare flights booked through foreign carriers. Travelers without PreCheck can still improve their odds by packing light, pre separating electronics and liquids, and wearing shoes and clothing that move quickly through scanners.

Thanksgiving weather and the bigger picture

Separate forecasts already point to at least two storm systems that could complicate travel into and out of major hubs during the Thanksgiving window, particularly in the Northeast and along parts of the West Coast. Delays triggered by low visibility or strong crosswinds often compound security waits as waves of delayed passengers arrive all at once, so travelers facing combined weather and volume risks should be even more conservative about connection times. Adept Traveler's earlier coverage of the Thanksgiving storm outlook for the Eastern U.S. and the ongoing flight caps at key U.S. hubs offers a deeper look at where bottlenecks are most likely to form.

For structural context on how to navigate crowded checkpoints in any season, our evergreen guide to TSA security, PreCheck, and CLEAR walks through which programs move the needle and how to decide if the enrollment costs make sense for your travel pattern.

Taken together, the Thanksgiving TSA screening surge, record overall travel volumes, and a still recovering aviation workforce point to a holiday where planning and flexibility will matter more than usual. Travelers who verify IDs early, choose less crowded flight times, and keep expectations aligned with the realities of packed airports will be best positioned to get where they are going with the least stress.