Tropical Storm Jerry: Travel impacts for the Leewards

Published on Oct 9, 2025, 9:48 am CDT

5 min read

Tropical Storm Jerry is moving west-northwest toward the northern Leeward Islands with sustained winds near 65 mph and the potential to reach hurricane strength by late October 10 or October 11. Tropical storm watches stretch from Antigua and Barbuda through Anguilla and Guadeloupe, with forecasters calling for 2 to 4 inches of rain and dangerous rip currents as swells build outward from the center. Travelers bound for Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Bermuda should build in buffers and monitor carrier advisories.

Key Points

Why it matters: Jerry could become a hurricane by the weekend, adding wind, rain, and rough surf to popular island itineraries.
Travel impact: Expect ferry disruptions, beach closures for rip currents, and rolling airline schedule changes.
What's next: Recon flights today and Friday will refine intensity and track, including a northward turn near the northern Leewards.
Island watches: Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, St. Martin and St. Barthélemy, and Guadeloupe.
Airline waivers: Select carriers have posted flexible-change options for Sint Maarten and nearby islands.
U.S. East Coast: Current guidance favors a recurvature away from the mainland, but Bermuda interests should stay alert.

Snapshot

At 8:00 a.m. AST on October 9, Jerry was centered near 15.7N, 58.4W, about 355 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 65 mph, and gradual strengthening is expected over the next 48 hours as the storm passes near or just northeast of the northern Leewards late today into tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center, with forecasters highlighting life-threatening rip currents as swells spread toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A northward turn is expected Friday into Saturday, which would keep the strongest core offshore of the Greater Antilles but maintain rough seas and flight-planning uncertainty across the region.

Background

This week's pattern features a strong Bermuda High and an approaching trough that should coax Jerry north and eventually northeast over the open Atlantic. That steering favors limited direct U.S. mainland impacts, while elevating risk windows for the northern Leewards, the Virgin Islands, and later Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center has posted tropical storm watches across multiple islands, with rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches and localized maxima to 6 inches, especially in steep terrain. NOAA and U.S. Air Force hurricane hunter missions are scheduled through October 10 to better sample Jerry's structure and environment. Those data will tighten track and intensity forecasts, including the timing and sharpness of the expected turn.

Latest Developments

Jerry forecast to intensify; new data coming from hurricane hunters

Jerry remains over very warm waters, and while some wind shear persists, the National Hurricane Center projects gradual strengthening, possibly to hurricane status by late Friday or Saturday. The 8:00 a.m. AST intermediate advisory confirms the current position, motion, and watches, while reconnaissance missions today and Friday will refine near-term intensity. Travelers should expect surf advisories and intermittent marine cancellations to ripple through ferry timetables, with beach safety flags likely trending red as swells arrive. WestJet has issued a same-day change-fee waiver for Philipsburg, Sint Maarten, a sign that broader airline flexibility may expand if Jerry strengthens on approach. Continue to monitor your carrier's travel-alert page and airport status boards as the forecast evolves.

Caribbean and Bermuda travel planning: practical buffers and airport notes

Build extra time for flights into Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport (SJU) and for connections onward to St. Thomas, St. Croix, or Anguilla, as convective downpours and flow-control measures can prompt holding or reroutes. L.F. Wade International Airport (BDA) in Bermuda could see stronger surf and bands early next week if Jerry curves north. Even with a track that keeps the core offshore, shore excursions and small-craft operations are often the first to pause. Check with hotels about flexible cancellation windows, and verify ferry operators' social feeds the morning of travel. For a traveler's playbook on adapting plans around Jerry, see our earlier guidance in Tropical Storm Jerry: What travelers need to know now.

Analysis

For travelers, Jerry's chief risk over the next 48 hours is not a direct eyewall encounter but the broad footprint of tropical-storm-force winds, squally rain bands, and hazardous surf. That combination can produce short-notice ferry suspensions, port closures, and runway flow constraints that cascade into missed connections. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local 6-inch peaks, will raise urban and small-stream flood risk on steeper islands. From an airline-ops perspective, these bands can toggle arrival spacing and departure rates below normal, leading to rolling delays even when a field remains VFR between showers. Recon data later today and Friday will clarify whether Jerry can overcome shear enough to briefly intensify to a hurricane before the northward turn. A sharper, earlier turn raises surf and rip-current hazards for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands but limits wind impacts; a slower, later turn nudges stronger squalls closer to the northern Leewards and increases the odds of additional waivers. Bermuda should prepare for high surf and a potential wind-rain period early next week if guidance trends left.

Final Thoughts

Keep plans flexible through the weekend, especially for beach and boat days, and enable airline and ferry alerts on your phone. If Jerry is upgraded, expect more carriers to publish change-fee waivers for the northern Leewards and possibly Bermuda. With smart buffers and real-time updates from your airline and hotel, most itineraries can adapt around Tropical Storm Jerry.