Shutdown hasn't spiked delays, but FAA staffing is a risk

Published on Oct 21, 2025, 2:37 pm CDT

3 min read

Key points

Cirium: 82.6% of U.S. flights departed on time Oct. 1-17.
Cancellations remained very low through Oct. 17.
FAA imposed short ground delays on Oct. 19 for staffing.
Unpaid controllers face a $0 paycheck on Oct. 28 if stalemate continues.
United and Delta say operations are holding, bookings could wobble.

Impact

Audience: U.S. air travelers on domestic and transborder routes.
Change: Operational metrics steady so far, but FAA staffing triggers are rising.
Action: Build buffer time, monitor airline alerts, and rebook early if schedules tighten.
Risk: Moderate now, higher if controller absences increase around late October pay cycle.

Cirium analysis shows the federal government shutdown has not yet driven a jump in airline disruptions. From October 1 through October 17, 82.6 percent of U.S. flights departed within 15 minutes of schedule, an average to above-average result for this time of year, and cancellations remained very low. FlightAware data also did not flag an unusual spike this past weekend, though storms around Dallas complicated American Airlines' operation. The nut graf: performance has held, but unpaid air traffic controllers and emerging FAA staffing constraints could shift the picture quickly as the shutdown drags on.

FAA and air traffic control, current posture

The Federal Aviation Administration has acknowledged staffing shortages during the shutdown and has periodically issued limited ground delays to balance capacity. On October 19, the agency cited staffing-related programs that affected several hubs, including O'Hare International Airport (ORD), Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), and Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL). Controllers received only a partial paycheck on October 14 for pre-shutdown work, and without a funding resolution they face a zero-dollar paycheck on October 28. That squeeze raises the odds of more call-outs or secondary jobs that could thin coverage just as holiday planning begins.

Latest developments

Transportation Department secretary Sean Duffy told Fox News on October 20 that travelers "may see more disruptions" if the shutdown continues, noting some controllers are seeking side work to make ends meet. FAA weekend summaries pointed to more than 5,800 delays on October 19, with staffing triggers compounding weather and unrelated local events. United executives said October 16 that operations have held up so far, while warning that prolonged uncertainty could dent bookings. Delta told investors in early October that it had not seen a material operational impact in the first days of the shutdown.

Analysis

Travelers should plan as if the system is balanced but brittle. The 82.6 percent on-time figure through October 17 suggests airlines and the FAA are managing well, yet staffing is a lagging stressor that tends to surface abruptly when pay cycles hit. Watch the October 28 paycheck milestone; if controller absences rise, expect rolling ground delays at complex hubs such as Chicago O'Hare, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Atlanta. Build in a longer connection cushion, consider first-bank departures where feasible, and enable push notifications in your airline app. For day-of insights on airport programs, check our daily outlook in Flight delays and airport impacts: October 21, 2025.

Final thoughts

The primary takeaway is simple: the government shutdown has not yet spiked flight delays, but FAA staffing pressure makes the outlook fragile. If controller pay remains suspended past October 28, disruption risk will climb, and travelers should prepare accordingly while monitoring airline and FAA updates about the government shutdown flight delays landscape.