US Government Shutdown Travel Bookings Drop

Published on Nov 24, 2025, 3:46 pm CST

7 min read

Key points

US government shutdown travel bookings dropped about 10 percent according to U.S. Travel Association CEO Geoff Freeman
A 43 day shutdown and FAA flight caps have shaken traveler confidence and risk appetite for holiday trips
Inbound international visits to the United States are forecast to fall from 72.4 million in 2024 to about 67.9 million in 2025
New visa fees, long wait times, and tougher border perceptions are pushing some visitors toward competing destinations
Travelers should build extra buffer into holiday plans, check policies closely, and watch how 2026 event demand reshapes US trips

Impact

Where Impacts Are Most Likely: Expect softer US demand on discretionary leisure trips, tighter booking curves, and weaker inbound volumes from Canada and some overseas markets
Best Times To Travel: Travelers who can shift US trips into 2026 around major events may see more supportive policy moves and marketing offers
Onward Travel And Changes: Shaken confidence and thinner inbound demand could mean trimmed schedules, less redundancy on some routes, and more pressure on key hubs
What Travelers Should Do Now: Build generous buffers into holiday travel, monitor airline and government advisories, and price check alternative destinations if US entry feels too complex
Border And Security Experience: International visitors should budget extra time at US airports for screening and document checks and stay current on visa fees, interview waits, and device search rules

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The US government shutdown travel bookings slump is now plain to see, with U.S. Travel Association CEO Geoff Freeman telling industry leaders that bookings dropped at least 10 percent as the 43 day funding lapse dragged on. Speaking at the Phocuswright Conference in San Diego on November 20, he argued that shaken confidence around air travel and federal services has driven some holiday travelers to stay home, and others to switch destinations entirely. For anyone planning US trips, the message is to add buffer, watch policy announcements, and compare options more carefully than usual.

In practical terms, the shutdown cut into core travel systems and confidence at the same time. Even before it ended, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced plans to cap flight capacity by 10 percent at 40 of the busiest US airports to protect safety amid air traffic control staffing strains, a step that would have affected up to 1,800 flights and 268,000 seats per day through major hubs such as Chicago O Hare. U.S. Travel separately warned that the shutdown was costing at least $1 billion per week in lost travel spending, and by mid November industry estimates put cumulative losses above $6 billion as unpaid federal workers, delayed services, and nervous passengers all cut back or rerouted.

Government Shutdown Shock On Holiday Bookings

Freeman told the conference that travel companies saw "a substantial reduction in bookings, at least 10 percent," in the weeks when federal services were disrupted, and that some airline CEOs privately expected the hit through year end to be even larger. The slide is not only about delayed vacations. It reflects a deeper worry that crucial systems such as air traffic control, Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoints, passport processing, and national parks can all become collateral damage when Congress deadlocks.

For holiday travelers, that worry translates into concrete choices. Some households decided not to risk long connections through major hubs that might face TSA staffing shortages or extended FAA caps. Others postponed complex multi stop trips that relied on government operated services such as Amtrak, national park access, or trusted traveler programs. In aggregate, that hesitation is what shows up in a double digit bookings dip during what should be one of the busiest travel periods of the year.

The shutdown also exposed how thin the margin of error has become after years of strain on aviation staffing and infrastructure. When the FAA signals that it must trim schedules simply to keep the system safe with unpaid controllers stretched, it reinforces the sense that travelers cannot take normal operations for granted. That is exactly the kind of perception shock that lingers beyond the formal end date of a funding crisis.

Inbound Travel Was Already Sliding Before The Shutdown

The shutdown arrived on top of a structural problem. U.S. Travel's latest forecast shows that inbound international visits to the United States are expected to drop from 72.4 million in 2024 to about 67.9 million in 2025, a 6.3 percent decline and the first year over year fall since 2020. Tourism Economics and Brand USA data underline the same trend, warning that inbound travel will reach only about 85 percent of 2019's 79.4 million visitors in 2025, with Canada's sharp pullback doing much of the damage.

Spending follows visitors. Revised projections now show total inbound travel spending falling by more than 3 percent in 2025, erasing billions of dollars in export revenue and threatening thousands of jobs in airlines, hotels, attractions, and local service businesses that depend heavily on foreign guests. Travel analysts note that this is a reversal from expectations as recently as late 2024, when many models projected continued recovery rather than a new slump.

Shocks such as the shutdown tend to amplify those underlying trends. For a European or Asian visitor debating whether to book a US itinerary or a trip to another long haul destination, news of unpaid air traffic controllers, capped flights, and long security lines can be the nudge that pushes them toward a competitor. That is what Freeman meant when he said the United States is "driving travel into the arms" of other markets.

Policy Choices And Perception Risks

Several policy moves over the past year have made the competitive picture harder for the United States. A new $250.00 (USD) "visa integrity fee" that takes effect on October 1, 2025, lifts the total cost of some non immigrant visas to about $442.00 (USD), one of the highest price points in the world, and is expected to hit demand particularly hard in non visa waiver markets across Latin America and Asia. At the same time, visa interview wait times in key source countries remain long, with six month queues still common in some consular districts.

Perception is another hurdle. Congressional testimony and independent analysis this year have emphasized that the United States has slipped from the top rank of global tourist destinations, in part because of headlines about controversial border policies, higher denial rates, and high profile detentions at US airports. For risk averse leisure travelers, and for corporate travel managers steering high value clients, recurring stories about device searches, secondary screenings, or travelers being turned away at the border can weigh heavily even when overall incident rates are low relative to the volume of arrivals.

Freeman's warning about "fear about coming to the United States" captures that dynamic. The concern is not only about actual enforcement practices, but about the narrative that visitors might be detained, questioned, or humiliated, which can be particularly chilling for first time travelers or those from communities that already feel scrutinized. In this environment, any misstep in messaging, such as joking remarks about Homeland Security "coming after" overstaying tourists, tends to echo globally in headlines that reinforce anxiety rather than welcome.

What Travelers And Advisors Should Do

For domestic travelers planning US trips in late 2025 and early 2026, the first priority is to build flexibility back into itineraries. That means leaving generous buffers at hub connections, avoiding the tightest early morning security peaks when possible, and paying close attention to airline schedule changes as carriers continue to adjust to staffing realities and demand shifts. Tools such as Adept Traveler's daily Flight Delays And Airport Impacts: November 24, 2025 report can help travelers and advisors see which hubs are most strained on a given day.

International visitors considering trips to the United States should do more front end homework on visa and entry requirements, including budgeting for higher fees and potential interview delays. Articles such as Adept Traveler's coverage of TSA biometric fee and US airport security rules and evergreen guides to US entry and TSA screening can help clarify what to expect at security checkpoints and immigration, and where policies have recently changed. Travelers should also register contact information with airlines and, where available, with government traveler programs so they receive alerts quickly if policy shifts affect their flights.

For travel advisors and tour operators, this moment argues for diversification rather than abandonment. The United States still has a pipeline of major events, including the 2026 FIFA World Cup, America 250 celebrations, and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, which U.S. Travel expects will pull demand sharply higher later in the decade. Advisors may want to tilt near term marketing toward destinations with smoother entry experiences while keeping a clear strategy for reintroducing US product as visa wait times ease and messaging improves.

Finally, industry groups are pressing the federal government to treat travel as a competitive export sector, not a passive beneficiary of global demand. That agenda includes protecting Brand USA marketing funds, simplifying visa procedures, investing in air traffic control modernization, and insulating essential aviation and border workers from future shutdown pay disruptions. For travelers, the most useful step is to stay informed, choose routes and dates that leave room for disruption, and recognize that today's policy choices will shape tomorrow's options and prices.