Shutdown Fallout Cuts Thanksgiving Flight Demand

The federal government shutdown, and especially last week's flight capacity cuts and air travel chaos, has taken a clear bite out of Thanksgiving travel demand. New figures from aviation analytics firm Cirium show that as of November 14, bookings for Thanksgiving weekend were 3.3 percent lower than a year earlier for domestic trips at a sample of 21 large United States airports, even though demand had been tracking ahead of 2024 only two weeks earlier.

In other words, instead of adding to the usual Thanksgiving rush, many travelers backed away once it became clear that the shutdown and air traffic control staffing crisis were going to collide with peak holiday travel. Capacity is now being restored after the Federal Aviation Administration, FAA, ended its shutdown era emergency order, but the dent in demand is already embedded in the booking curves.

Cirium data shows a sharp swing in demand

Cirium's analysis looked at bookings made between June 30 and November 14 for travel between November 26 and November 30, covering the core Thanksgiving window at 21 major domestic airports. As of October 31, those bookings were still up 1.6 percent compared with 2024, pointing to a modestly stronger holiday season despite economic jitters earlier in the year.

The picture changed fast once shutdown headlines focused on aviation. After the FAA announced unprecedented cuts in airspace capacity at 40 high volume airports, and as stories about unpaid air traffic controllers and long delay chains dominated coverage, year over year comparisons slipped into negative territory.

Cirium's data shows that the steepest drop came between November 7 and November 14, precisely the week when the FAA's most aggressive flight reduction plans were on the table and cancellation rates briefly surged to around 10 percent on November 9 and November 10. By mid November, what had been a "meaningful" gain over last year had turned into a notable shortfall.

For airlines, that is an unwelcome reversal. Carriers entered the quarter expecting a rebound in both corporate and leisure demand after a soft first half of 2025, and had been counting on Thanksgiving to help close the gap. Instead, a chunk of those peak season bookings never materialized.

How the shutdown and FAA cuts hit Thanksgiving

The 2025 United States federal government shutdown began on October 1 and lasted 43 days, making it the longest in history. Air travel did not stop, but air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration officers worked without pay, while hiring, training, and many safety related functions were paused.

As controller fatigue and absenteeism increased, the FAA moved from warnings to hard limits. On November 6 it announced a temporary emergency order that would cut air traffic by up to 10 percent at 40 high volume airports, with a 4 percent reduction taking effect on November 7 and deeper cuts planned for the following week. The list covered many of the country's busiest hubs, including Hartsfield Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL), Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD), Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), and John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK).

In practice, improving staffing allowed officials to freeze the cuts at about 6 percent rather than pushing all the way to 10 percent, but airlines still had to thin schedules and pre emptively cancel thousands of flights at the exact moment that late bookers usually lock in Thanksgiving trips.

The result was a week of ugly operational metrics. On some days more than 2,600 flights were canceled across the system, and delays rippled outward from the biggest hubs as airlines rationed scarce slots and rerouted crews and aircraft. The shutdown officially ended on November 12, but the psychological hit to travelers had already landed.

FAA begins to unwind restrictions, but demand lag remains

Once Congress reached a deal to reopen the government and controller attendance stabilized, the FAA began dialing back its orders. On November 12 the agency and the Department of Transportation, DOT, froze the planned escalation in cuts and then reduced the required schedule reductions to 3 percent at the affected airports as staffing metrics improved.

By November 16, Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy and FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford announced that the emergency order would be terminated, with normal operations allowed to resume across the National Airspace System at 6:00 a.m. ET on November 17. Broadly speaking, that means airlines can now rebuild their Thanksgiving schedules and operate close to their original plans, even if some ad hoc cuts and retimings persist in the schedule.

The problem for demand is that much of the discretionary Thanksgiving traffic is booked weeks or months in advance. Families who decided in early November that flying this year was too risky, or too stressful, are unlikely to reverse that choice simply because the emergency order has now been lifted. In that sense, the shutdown's effect on Thanksgiving is baked in.

What this means for travelers now

For travelers who are still planning to fly between November 26 and November 30, the Cirium data suggests slightly less crowded flights at some major hubs compared with last year, although peak days and peak departure times will still be busy. Lighter demand does not automatically translate into cheaper last minute fares, because airlines have already removed capacity and are focused on revenue recovery, not fire sales.

Operationally, the risk profile is improving. With the FAA cuts lifted and controller staffing stabilizing, the system should behave more like a normal Thanksgiving rather than a repeat of last week's rolling ground stops. Even so, there is still less margin for error than airlines would like, which means that weather, localized staffing gaps, or knock on delays can still create bad days.

Travelers can tilt the odds in their favor by choosing earlier flights in the day, avoiding tight connections at the most heavily affected hubs, and allowing extra time for airport processes that are still catching up after weeks of stress. Building in an extra hour at the airport and choosing a longer layover might not feel elegant, but it is cheaper than missing a connection on the Sunday after Thanksgiving.

Final thoughts

The shutdown is over and the FAA has torn up its most restrictive emergency orders, yet the data shows a clear scar on Thanksgiving travel demand. Bookings that once pointed to a modestly stronger season have slipped behind last year as travelers reacted to headlines about unpaid controllers, forced flight cuts, and double digit cancellation rates.

For the rest of the holiday period, the story will be about how quickly airlines and the FAA can rebuild confidence in the system. If the next two weeks pass without major meltdowns, some of the lost demand could reappear at Christmas and New Year's, especially from travelers who chose to sit Thanksgiving out. For now, though, Thanksgiving 2025 looks set to be slightly less crowded in the air than it once promised to be, yet still busy enough that careful planning remains essential.

Sources

• Shutdown effect: Thanksgiving air travel
• People were booking their Thanksgiving flights at a fast clip. Here's why that ended
• DOT & FAA Announce Termination of FAA Emergency Order, Return to Normal Operations
• DOT & FAA Announce Temporary 10% Reduction in Flights at 40 Airports
• FAA lifts shutdown related flight restrictions
• 2025 United States federal government shutdown